We love the New York Times Fourth Down bot! Here is an article about its updated methodology for analyzing NFL fourth down decisions. Regression to the mean or reversion to the mean? It’s more likely …
final thoughts on our NCAA football playoff forecasting model
Here are some final thoughts on our model and methodology. First, the pros. Our models worked really well considering how little information they use. Really well. I thought 12-13 games would not be enough to …
Final college football rankings
Our final college football playoff rankings agreed with the committee’s final ranking in terms of who gets in, but our seeding was a bit different (we swapped Ohio State and Oregon). Alabama …
NCAA Playoff forecasts, week 14
This will be our last forecasts for the 2014 College Football Playoff. With at most one game left in the season for most teams, we see that for all practical purposes all but nine teams …
NCAA football playoff forecasts, week 13
There weren’t so many upsets among the best teams this week (mainly Ole Miss), so we see less shuffling around in terms of who will be ranked in the top 4 at the end of …
NCAA football playoff forecasts, week 12
Several big upsets in this weekend’s games are reflected in our rankings and playoff forecasts. Most teams have about two games left plus maybe a conference championship game, so nearly all teams have been mathematically …
will the best teams make the playoff?
Our methodology uses math to consistently rank teams based on game outcomes and strength of schedule. The method implicitly assume that the “best” teams–those that are ranked the highest–will make the playoff. It’s worth noting …
NCAA football playoff forecasts, week 11
Another week of exciting games leads to the results that indicate that the SEC West is producing the best teams in the country. This is also the week that we are seeing that most teams …
NCAA football playoff forecasts, week 10
With the end of the season coming up in about a month, we see that almost anything could happen in the NCAA football playoff. There were few upsets this week (Georgia, Arizona) and as a …
NCAA football playoff forecasts, week 9
We have another week of NCAA playoff forecasts. This weekend’s games included some exciting outcomes and upsets like the Illinois/Minnesota game. We noticed that these results shook things up in our model. With Minnesota’s loss …