We are down to our final college football playoffs. Conference championship games are very important, but at this point every other game is inconsequential. There is no Big 12 championship, and both of our models have Oklahoma in the College Football Playoff in every simulation. It’s worth noting that Oklahoma is not currently ranked #1 according to our rankings, but the math suggests they will certainly make it into the playoff since they have no other remaining games (no games = no risk).
We expect Alabama, Clemson, and Michigan State to round out the playoff. We believe that Iowa will make the playoff if they win the B1G championship. We do not think that realistically, Ohio State or North Carolina have a chance to make it into the playoff. However, mathematically, these teams could end up in the top 4. We have noted before that the committee will almost certainly choose the most deserving teams not the best teams–the simulations only report the best teams.
———- mLRMC Method: Top Teams to make the 4-team playoff ————
1 Oklahoma
2 Alabama
3 Clemson
4 Michigan State
5 Iowa
6 Ohio State
———- ln(mLRMC) Method: Top Teams to make the 4-team playoff ————
1 Oklahoma
2 Alabama
3 Clemson
4 Michigan State
5 Iowa
6 North Carolina
7 Stanford