pre-championship game NCAA football rankings

Last week, we posted our college football playoff forecasts, from most likely to least likely to make the playoff. Our playoff forecasts then were as follows:

1 Oklahoma
2 Alabama
3 Clemson
4 Michigan State
5 Iowa

We note that Oklahoma was #1 because they do not have any remaining games in their schedule. With no uncertainly, they have no risk and will certainly make the playoff. They are not forecasted to be a #1 seed.

The rankings captured who was best at the time. areHere are our two lists of current rankings. I like the ln(mLRMC) rankings – they seemed to do a little better at getting it right. Both models rank Ohio State near the top, which is interesting because Ohio State will almost certainly not make the playoff due to not being in the B1G championship game. It’s worth noting that the forecasting component of our model recognizes this fact.

mLRMC rankings (prior to games on December 5):

1. Oklahoma
2. Alabama
3. Clemson
4. Ohio State
5. Michigan State
6. Iowa
7. Notre Dame
8. Stanford
9. Houston
10. Florida State
11. North Carolina
12. Mississippi
13. TCU
14. Michigan
15. Florida
16. Oklahoma State
17. Baylor
18. Oregon
19. Temple
20. Navy
21. Northwestern
22. Utah
23. Western Kentucky
24. Memphis
25. USC

ln(mLRMC) rankings (prior to the games on December 5)

1. Clemson
2. Alabama
3. Oklahoma
4. Michigan State
5. Ohio State
6. Iowa
7. Notre Dame
8. Stanford
9. North Carolina
10. Florida
11. Michigan
12. Houston
13. Mississippi
14. TCU
15. Florida State
16. Northwestern
17. Oregon
18. Oklahoma State
19. LSU
20. Temple
21. Baylor
22. Utah
23. Memphis
24. USC
25. Navy