Sports analytics from Laura Albert's team at the University of Wisconsin-Madison College of Engineering

NCAA football playoff forecasts, week 12

Wow, what an exciting weekend of games. Ohio State’s loss — and to a lesser extent Oklahoma State’s loss — changed the rankings and forecasts. We now forecast Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma, Michigan State, and Notre Dame are likely to make the playoff.

We see that the path to the playoff is easier for some teams than others. Iowa is fifth likely to make the playoff in both models, mainly because Iowa can make it into the playoff with a B1G championship game win. Iowa is ranked 7th and 6th now, but they have an easy path to the playoff. On the other hand, Ohio State is ranked 6th and 7th now, but has a very small chance of making the playoff because their loss to Michigan State makes their path to the playoff very difficult.

Wisconsin doesn’t have a chance, but that should make this year’s Axe Week extra exciting.

———- mLRMC Method: Top Teams to make the 4-team playoff ————
1 Clemson
2 Alabama
3 Oklahoma
4 Michigan State
5 Iowa
6 Notre Dame
7 Stanford
8 Florida
9 Ohio State

———- ln(mLRMC) Method: Top Teams to make the 4-team playoff ————
1 Alabama
2 Clemson
3 Michigan State
4 Notre Dame
5 Iowa
6 Oklahoma
7 Florida
8 Stanford
9 North Carolina
10 Ohio State