The rankings have changed a bit since the upsets this weekend. We now have Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State and Notre Dame in our mLRMC playoff. In the ln(mLRMC) playoff, we have Stanford but not Notre …
NCAA football playoff forecasts, week 9
Another week of college football, another week of college football rankings. It looks like our model likes Clemson, LSU, Ohio State, Stanford, and Florida for making the playoff. We see that our two model variants …
NCAA football playoff forecasts, week 8
Welcome to Badger Bracketology 2.0! We have an updated methodology this year that relies on Markov chains, logistic regression, and simulation to forecast the four team college football playoff. Read more about it here. We …
what Badger Bracketology is reading
We love the New York Times Fourth Down bot! Here is an article about its updated methodology for analyzing NFL fourth down decisions. Regression to the mean or reversion to the mean? It’s more likely …
final thoughts on our NCAA football playoff forecasting model
Here are some final thoughts on our model and methodology. First, the pros. Our models worked really well considering how little information they use. Really well. I thought 12-13 games would not be enough to …
Final college football rankings
Our final college football playoff rankings agreed with the committee’s final ranking in terms of who gets in, but our seeding was a bit different (we swapped Ohio State and Oregon). Alabama …
NCAA Playoff forecasts, week 14
This will be our last forecasts for the 2014 College Football Playoff. With at most one game left in the season for most teams, we see that for all practical purposes all but nine teams …
NCAA football playoff forecasts, week 13
There weren’t so many upsets among the best teams this week (mainly Ole Miss), so we see less shuffling around in terms of who will be ranked in the top 4 at the end of …
NCAA football playoff forecasts, week 12
Several big upsets in this weekend’s games are reflected in our rankings and playoff forecasts. Most teams have about two games left plus maybe a conference championship game, so nearly all teams have been mathematically …
will the best teams make the playoff?
Our methodology uses math to consistently rank teams based on game outcomes and strength of schedule. The method implicitly assume that the “best” teams–those that are ranked the highest–will make the playoff. It’s worth noting …