We are down to our final college football playoffs. Conference championship games are very important, but at this point every other game is inconsequential. There is no Big 12 championship, and both of our models …
Rankings vs. forecasts
The Playoff Selection Committee’s rankings yield the ranking right now, which only gives insights into who would be in a playoff if it were held today. Our method simulates the rest of the season to …
NCAA football playoff forecasts, week 12
Wow, what an exciting weekend of games. Ohio State’s loss — and to a lesser extent Oklahoma State’s loss — changed the rankings and forecasts. We now forecast Clemson, Alabama, Oklahoma, Michigan State, and Notre …
NCAA football playoff forecasts, week 11
With the end of the season near, there are few teams that have a chance to make the playoffs. Both models agree that Alabama, Clemson, Ohio State, Notre Dame and maybe Oklahoma are the clear …
NCAA football playoff forecasts, week 10
The rankings have changed a bit since the upsets this weekend. We now have Clemson, Alabama, Ohio State and Notre Dame in our mLRMC playoff. In the ln(mLRMC) playoff, we have Stanford but not Notre …
NCAA football playoff forecasts, week 9
Another week of college football, another week of college football rankings. It looks like our model likes Clemson, LSU, Ohio State, Stanford, and Florida for making the playoff. We see that our two model variants …
NCAA football playoff forecasts, week 8
Welcome to Badger Bracketology 2.0! We have an updated methodology this year that relies on Markov chains, logistic regression, and simulation to forecast the four team college football playoff. Read more about it here. We …
what Badger Bracketology is reading
We love the New York Times Fourth Down bot! Here is an article about its updated methodology for analyzing NFL fourth down decisions. Regression to the mean or reversion to the mean? It’s more likely …
final thoughts on our NCAA football playoff forecasting model
Here are some final thoughts on our model and methodology. First, the pros. Our models worked really well considering how little information they use. Really well. I thought 12-13 games would not be enough to …
Final college football rankings
Our final college football playoff rankings agreed with the committee’s final ranking in terms of who gets in, but our seeding was a bit different (we swapped Ohio State and Oregon). Alabama …