NFL analytics: recap of the 2024 regular season

I am revisiting some NFL trends using analytics and data from the 2024 regular season. A few months ago, I blogged about the new NFL dynamic kickoff rules. Now that the regular season is over and the Superbowl slate is set (Philadelphia Eagles vs. the Kansas City Chiefs) I want to revisit the analytics of the 2024 regular season. In this post, I will review kickoff returns, onside kicks, going for it on fourth down, and two point conversion attempts.

Kickoff returns

The NFL introduced a new fair catch rule prior to the 2023 season, which allowed kick returners to call for a fair catch anywhere in the field—not just in the endzone—and be awarded a touchback. This was  popular, and resulted in players returning kickoffs only 21.8% of the time, an all-time low. The dynamic kickoff rules introduced prior to the 2024 season attempted to reverse this trend and encourage more kickoff returns. In the end, 32.8% of kickoffs were returned, which was much higher than the return rate from the 2023 season but is also a lower return rate than every other season in recent memory.

Onside kicks

The dynamic kickoff rules eliminated onside kicks as we knew them. Under the dynamic rules, teams trailing in the fourth quarter must announce their intent to attempt an onside kick before attempting one. Onside kicks were attempted 50 times and 3 were successful, a 6% success rate. This was higher than the number of attempts and success rates in the 2023 season—41 and 4.9%, respectfully—but these are small numbers so it’s hard to draw conclusions with confidence. A decade ago, onside kicks were successful 16% of the time.

Going for it on fourth down

The average team attempted 1.4 fourth down conversions per game in the 2024 season, succeeding 56.8% of the time. In 2023, the average team attempted fourth down conversions 1.47 times per game and were successful 51.8% of the time. This is averaged across all fourth down attempts with different distances. For comparison, teams successfully convert 68.6% and 57.8% fourth downs when there is a distance of 1 or 2 yards, respectfully. Teams attempt fourth down conversions and succeed at said conversions at different rates. The teams that attempt the most fourth down conversions (in order) are:

1. Cleveland (2.59/game)
2. Chicago (2.24/game)
3. New York Giants (2.18/game)
4. Detroit (1.94/game)
5. Miami and Falcons (tied at 1.82/game)

Of these teams, only the Detroit Lions made the playoffs, which suggests that many fourth down conversion attempts are necessitated by teams trailing in a game. The teams that are the most successful at converting fourth downs (in order) are:

1. Washington Commanders (87%)
2. Buffalo Bills (72.3%)
3. Kansas City Chiefs (70.6%)
4. Philadelphia Eagles (70.4%)

Interestingly, these were the four teams in the NFC and AFC Championship Games.

Two point conversion attempts

I have blogged about when to attempt a two point conversion. Two point conversions remain popular in the NFL, with 9.8% of touchdowns followed by a two point conversion attempt. This is similar to the last couple of seasons and also more than double the rate a decade ago (4.4% in 2014). Two point conversions became more popular after the NFL moved the point after (PAT) kickoff back prior to the 2015 season. The graph below shows the fraction of touchdowns followed by a two point conversion attempt over the last 15 seasons. In the 2024 regular season, only 40% of two point conversions were successful, which was significantly lower than the 2023 success probability of 56.5% and the lowest since 2008. Typically, just under half of two point conversions are successful (the success probability was 47.6% over the last five seasons). In the 2024 season, 96% of the point after touchdown (PAT) kick attempts were successful. This means that, on average, in 2024 a PAT was worth 0.96 points and an two point conversion was worth 0.80 points. The “breakeven” two point conversion success rate is 48%.