Sports analytics from Laura Albert's team at the University of Wisconsin-Madison College of Engineering

NCAA Playoff forecasts, week 14

This will be our last forecasts for the 2014 College Football Playoff. With at most one game left in the season for most teams, we see that for all practical purposes all but nine teams will be excluded from the playoff.

Our top 5 teams to make the playoff are the same as those in the CFP committee: Alabama, Oregon, OSU, Florida State, TCU.

The good news: Wisconsin still has a chance!

Wisconsin has a fairly good chance due to being in the B1G championship game and due to so many upsets last week. However, Wisconsin’s chances are probably overstated here, since the model has (incorrectly?) overvalued the B1G team. LIkewise, there is a good chance that Ohio State’s chances are overstated. Ohio State is currently ranked fifth in the College Football Rankings. Additionally, it’s not clear if the CFP committee will “value” a win over Ohio State given that Ohio State will be playing in the championship game without J.T. Barrett. Still, there is a chance for Wisconsin, and it’s better than it was last week.

The results indicate that there are only 9 teams that have a chance, with one favorite from each major conference. A second team in some of the conferences have a chance: B1G (Go Wisconsin!), SEC (Missouri has a small chance), and the Big12 (Baylor), and the ACC (Georgia Tech).

Week 14 forecasts.

Ensemble model results

The top teams to make the playoff with the fraction of simulations in the playoff (out of 10,000).

  1. Alabama: 0.976
  2. Oregon: 0.713
  3. Ohio State: 0.695
  4. Florida State: 0.59
  5. Texas Christian: 0.345
  6. Georgia Tech: 0.265
  7. Wisconsin: 0.226
  8. Baylor: 0.151
  9. Missouri: 0.0393

The top teams to just miss the playoff with the fraction of simulations ranked fifth.The fraction of playoffs with at least one team from each major conference:

  • ACC: 0.772
  • Big12: 0.444
  • B1G: 0.754
  • PAC12: 0.713
  • SEC: 0.976