NCAA football playoff forecasts, week 13

There weren’t so many upsets among the best teams this week (mainly Ole Miss), so we see less shuffling around in terms of who will be ranked in the top 4 at the end of the season. With 1-2 games left in the season for most teams, we see that for all practical purposes, almost all teams will be excluded from the playoff.  The good news: Wisconsin still has a chance! But Wisconsin’s chance is nearly eliminated because almost all of the teams “ahead” of Wisconsin won this past weekend. The results indicate that there are six “favorite” teams that are competing for the playoff: Alabama, Ohio State, Mississippi State, Florida State, Oregon, and TCU. Marshall is still undefeated. We do not believe that Marshall will make the playoff if they remain undefeated by the end of the season given their easy conference schedule. The College Football Playoff Committee did not put Marshall in their rankings last week, which listed the committee’s top 25 teams in the country. Marshall is currently #19 in the AP poll. We have left Marshall in our rankings for now and will look for ways to account for teams like Marshalls next year.

Week 13 forecasts.

Ensemble model results

The top teams to make the playoff with the fraction of simulations in the playoff (out of 10,000).
  1. Alabama: 0.717
  2. Ohio State: 0.655
  3. Florida State: 0.599
  4. Mississippi State: 0.443
  5. Oregon: 0.403
  6. Texas Christian: 0.368
  7. Baylor: 0.263
  8. Georgia: 0.242
  9. Marshall: 0.142
  10. U.C.L.A.: 0.106
  11. Kansas State: 0.0352
  12. Wisconsin: 0.0161
The top teams to just miss the playoff with the fraction of simulations ranked fifth.The fraction of playoffs with at least one team from each major conference:
  • ACC: 0.603
  • Big12: 0.541
  • B1G: 0.664
  • PAC12: 0.478
  • SEC: 0.926
The fraction of playoffs with two teams from each major conference. The SEC and the Big 12 are the only two conferences that will have a decent shot at 2+ teams in the playoff.
  • ACC: 0.003
  • Big12: 0.125
  • B1G: 0.007
  • PAC12: 0.0309
  • SEC: 0.444

Wins only model results

The top teams to make the playoff with the fraction of simulations in the playoff (out of 10,000).
  1. Alabama: 0.777
  2. Ohio State: 0.661
  3. Florida State: 0.623
  4. Mississippi State: 0.455
  5. Oregon: 0.443
  6. Georgia: 0.378
  7. Texas Christian: 0.217
  8. Marshall: 0.178
  9. Baylor: 0.15
  10. U.C.L.A.: 0.0709
  11. Wisconsin: 0.0416
Wins and losses model results The top teams to make the playoff with the fraction of simulations in the playoff (out of 10,000).
  1. Alabama: 0.697
  2. Ohio State: 0.687
  3. Florida State: 0.628
  4. Oregon: 0.461
  5. Mississippi State: 0.442
  6. U.C.L.A.: 0.235
  7. Texas Christian: 0.228
  8. Marshall: 0.22
  9. Baylor: 0.205
  10. Georgia: 0.177
  11. Georgia Tech: 0.0192
  12. Wisconsin: 0.0016
Full model results The top teams to make the playoff with the fraction of simulations in the playoff (out of 10,000).
  1. Alabama: 0.678
  2. Texas Christian: 0.66
  3. Ohio State: 0.617
  4. Florida State: 0.548
  5. Baylor: 0.435
  6. Mississippi State: 0.433
  7. Oregon: 0.304
  8. Georgia: 0.17
  9. Kansas State: 0.106
  10. Marshall: 0.0289
  11. U.C.L.A.: 0.0129
  12. Wisconsin: 0.0052