We have another week of NCAA playoff forecasts. This weekend’s games included some exciting outcomes and upsets like the Illinois/Minnesota game. We noticed that these results shook things up in our model.
With Minnesota’s loss to Illinois, Nebraska is the clear favorite in the B1G West. While Michigan State and Ohio State are higher ranked than Nebraska in the various polls, Michigan State and Ohio State have to essentially fight for a single spot in the NCAA playoff poll, and therefore, MSU and OSU are both less likely to make it into the playoff than Nebraska, who has an easier path going forward.
The dominance of the SEC West continues (it is much stronger than the B1G East!). We see that four of the five top teams to make the playoff come from this conference division: Mississippi State, Alabama, Mississippi, and Auburn. This division will almost certainly contribute 1 and maybe 2 teams to the playoff, we’re just not sure which team(s) yet.
The remaining major conferences (ACC, Big12, B1G, PAC12) are fighting for maybe 1 spot in the playoff along with Notre Dame and Marshall. Upsets in one conference (the B1G this week) can improve the forecast for another conference (the Big 12).
The most likely teams to make the playoff are also the most likely teams to miss the playoff (end up fifth in the rankings). This makes sense, since they are by no means guaranteed a spot in the playoff with so many weeks to go. A single loss can take them out of the playoff.
Go here for last week’s forecasts.
Week 9 forecasts.
Ensemble model results
The top teams to make the playoff with the fraction of simulations in the playoff (out of 10,000).
- Mississippi State : 0.587
- Mississippi : 0.399
- Florida State : 0.399
- Alabama : 0.334
- Auburn : 0.269
- Georgia : 0.180
- Nebraska : 0.175
- Michigan State : 0.162
- Notre Dame : 0.154
- Oregon : 0.144
- Ohio State : 0.126
- Utah : 0.122
- Texas Christian : 0.120
- Kansas State : 0.116
- Arizona : 0.114
- Baylor : 0.111
- Marshall : 0.093
- Arizona State : 0.073
- Louisiana State : 0.063
- UCLA: 0.042
The top teams to just miss the playoff with the fraction of simulations ranked fifth.
- Florida State : 0.080
- Michigan State : 0.065
- Nebraska : 0.063
- Oregon : 0.057
- Georgia : 0.056
- Ohio State : 0.047
- Mississippi State : 0.046
- Arizona : 0.047
- Notre Dame : 0.043
- Alabama : 0.040
The fraction of playoffs with at least one team from each major conference:
- ACC: 0.463
- Big12: 0.353
- B1G: 0.480
- PAC12: 0.4513
- SEC: 0.974
Results for the wins only model.
The top teams to make the playoff with the fraction of simulations in playoff.
- Mississippi State : 0.6003
- Florida State : 0.4207
- Mississippi : 0.4154
- Alabama : 0.3347
- Auburn : 0.2718
- Georgia : 0.2141
- Nebraska : 0.2055
- Michigan State : 0.1926
- Notre Dame : 0.1632
- Oregon : 0.1408
The top teams to just miss the playoff with the fraction of simulations ranked fifth.
- Florida State : 0.0798
- Michigan State : 0.0664
- Nebraska : 0.065
- Oregon : 0.0625
- Georgia : 0.0535
Results for the wins and losses only model.
The top teams to make the playoff with the fraction of simulations in playoff.
- Mississippi State : 0.5956
- Florida State : 0.3926
- Mississippi : 0.382
- Alabama : 0.35
- Auburn : 0.2659
- Oregon : 0.1807
- Ohio State : 0.1624
- Utah : 0.1585
- Georgia : 0.1503
- Nebraska : 0.1447
The top teams to just miss the playoff with the fraction of simulations ranked fifth.
- Florida State : 0.0829
- Oregon : 0.0661
- Michigan State : 0.0655
- Nebraska : 0.0585
- Georgia : 0.0529
Results for the full only model.
The top teams to make the playoff with the fraction of simulations in playoff.
- Mississippi State : 0.5661
- Mississippi : 0.4007
- Florida State : 0.3847
- Alabama : 0.3164
- Auburn : 0.269
- Texas Christian : 0.2388
- Kansas State : 0.2155
- Baylor : 0.2108
- Georgia : 0.1745
- Nebraska : 0.1734
The top teams to just miss the playoff with the fraction of simulations ranked fifth.
- Florida State : 0.0785
- Nebraska : 0.0665
- Michigan State : 0.0636
- Georgia : 0.0624
- Mississippi State : 0.0534