With the end of the season coming up in about a month, we see that almost anything could happen in the NCAA football playoff.

There were few upsets this week (Georgia, Arizona) and as a result, we do not see too much change in the forecasts. The B1G West is still up for grabs, and there is now a small possibility that Wisconsin could make the playoff if they win out the rest of the season (#22 in the ensemble model).

However, the ensemble results suggest that there are 14 teams with a significant possibility of making the playoff, with a large drop off in the forecasts after Arizona State at #14.

It is worth noting that the SEC dominance continues. The SEC is virtually guaranteed of having at least one team in the playoff, and 62% of our results have two or more SEC teams in the playoff.

Go here for last week’s forecasts.

Week 10 forecasts.

Ensemble model results

The top teams to make the playoff with the fraction of simulations in the playoff (out of 10,000).

1. Mississippi State: 0.682
2. Florida State: 0.54
3. Auburn: 0.417
4. Alabama: 0.33
5. Texas Christian: 0.218
6. Mississippi: 0.189
7. Notre Dame: 0.188
8. Nebraska: 0.17
9. Kansas State: 0.157
10. Ohio State: 0.154
11. Oregon: 0.136
12. Baylor: 0.134
13. Michigan State: 0.115
14. Arizona State: 0.106
15. U.C.L.A.: 0.0581
16. Marshall: 0.057
17. Louisiana State: 0.0556
18. Georgia: 0.0533
19. Duke: 0.0468
20. Minnesota: 0.0462
21. Oklahoma: 0.0381
22. Wisconsin: 0.0263

The top teams to just miss the playoff with the fraction of simulations ranked fifth.

1. Florida State: 0.076
2. Notre Dame: 0.07
3. Ohio State: 0.063
4. Nebraska: 0.0598
5. Auburn: 0.0537
6. Mississippi State: 0.0526
7. Michigan State: 0.0489
8. Texas Christian: 0.0477
9. Mississippi: 0.0423
10. Oregon: 0.0395

The fraction of playoffs with at least one team from each major conference:

• ACC: 0.5818
• Big12: 0.4718
• B1G: 0.4671
• PAC12: 0.3100
• SEC: 0.9678

Results for the wins only model.

The top teams to make the playoff with the fraction of simulations in playoff.

1. Mississippi State: 0.71
2. Florida State: 0.549
3. Auburn: 0.435
4. Alabama: 0.346
5. Notre Dame: 0.208
6. Mississippi: 0.206
7. Nebraska: 0.197
8. Ohio State: 0.176
9. Oregon: 0.14
10. Texas Christian: 0.139

The top teams to just miss the playoff with the fraction of simulations ranked fifth.

1. Florida State: 0.086
2. Nebraska: 0.072
3. Ohio State: 0.0716
4. Notre Dame: 0.0694
5. Michigan State: 0.0546

Results for the wins and losses only model.

The top teams to make the playoff with the fraction of simulations in playoff.

1. Mississippi State: 0.7
2. Florida State: 0.583
3. Auburn: 0.42
4. Alabama: 0.33
5. Notre Dame: 0.184
6. Ohio State: 0.167
7. Mississippi: 0.166
8. Oregon: 0.162
9. Nebraska: 0.157
10. Arizona State: 0.153

The top teams to just miss the playoff with the fraction of simulations ranked fifth.

1. Florida State: 0.0785
2. Notre Dame: 0.0687
3. Ohio State: 0.0658
4. Arizona State: 0.0586
5. Michigan State: 0.0499

Results for the full model.

The top teams to make the playoff with the fraction of simulations in playoff.

1. Mississippi State: 0.635
2. Florida State: 0.487
3. Texas Christian: 0.4
4. Auburn: 0.396
5. Alabama: 0.314
6. Kansas State: 0.283
7. Baylor: 0.246
8. Mississippi: 0.196
9. Notre Dame: 0.173
10. Nebraska: 0.155

The top teams to just miss the playoff with the fraction of simulations ranked fifth.

1. Mississippi State: 0.0759
2. Notre Dame: 0.0718
3. Baylor: 0.0664
4. Auburn: 0.065
5. Florida State: 0.0634