Sports analytics from Laura Albert's team at the University of Wisconsin-Madison College of Engineering


Below are the teams forecasted to make the College Football Playoff based on a simulation of the remaining season and conference championship games. These are different than the rankings (see this week’s NCAA football rankings), since this list takes the remaining football season into account, including possible conference championship games.

I report the teams forecasted to be ranked in the top four teams at the end of the regular season and conference championship games. This is subtlety different than forecasting who might be selected for the College Football Playoff. However, in years past, the committee has generally selected the top four ranked teams for the College Football Playoff. Read my blog post at Punk Rock Operations Research for more about this topic.

Here is who will be ranked in the top 4 if they win their conference championship game:

Oklahoma St

Other teams that could contend for a playoff spot: 

Alabama (if they beat Georgia)
Notre Dame (if multiple teams above lose)

Teams that will not make the playoff:

Iowa, The Ohio State University