Sports analytics from Laura Albert at the University of Wisconsin-Madison College of Engineering

NCAA FOOTBALL FORECASTS: November 15, 2021

Below are the teams forecasted to make the College Football Playoff based on a simulation of the remaining season and conference championship games. These are different than the rankings (see this week’s NCAA football rankings), since this list takes the remaining football season into account, including possible conference championship games.

I report the teams forecasted to be ranked in the top four teams at the end of the regular season and conference championship games. This is subtlety different than forecasting who might be selected for the College Football Playoff. However, in years past, the committee has generally selected the top four ranked teams for the College Football Playoff. Read my blog post at Punk Rock Operations Research for more about this topic.

Teams who were ranked in the top 4 in at least 1% of the simulations:

Georgia
Michigan
Alabama
Oklahoma St
Cincinnati
Oklahoma
The Ohio State
Notre Dame
Michigan St
Wake Forest

There are 10 teams who could plausibly be in the College Football Playoff, and 120 who cannot.