Below are the teams forecasted to make the College Football Playoff based on a simulation of the remaining season and conference championship games. These are different than the rankings (see this week’s NCAA football rankings), since this list takes the remaining football season into account, including possible conference championship games.
I report the teams forecasted to be ranked in the top four teams at the end of the regular season and conference championship games. This is subtlety different than forecasting who might be selected for the College Football Playoff. However, in years past, the committee has generally selected the top four ranked teams for the College Football Playoff. Read my blog post at Punk Rock Operations Research for more about this topic.
Here are what my forecasts show. Ohio State and Clemson are basically locks for the playoff. LSU will likely be ranked in the top 4 if they lose to Georgia in the SEC conference championship game, however, they will likely not be selected for the tournament if they lose. Given this, I predict that the playoff will be Ohio State, Clemson, Utah, Either LSU or Georgia (whoever wins). Oklahoma can be selected with a Big 12 conference championship win if Utah loses.
You may be wondering why Wisconsin is on this list given that the Badgers have two losses. Wisconsin can end up ranked in the top 4 if they beat Ohio State, but I do not anticipate that the College Football Playoff selection committee will select the Badgers. But with other teams like Clemson losing, anything could be possible, including a two loss team in the playoff.
Summary of forecast results:
In the top 4, potentially even with a loss in the conference championship game:
- Ohio State
In the top 4, potentially even with a loss in the conference championship game:
- LSU
- Clemson
In the top 4 with a conference championship win:
- Utah
- Georgia
In the top 4 with a conference championship win and other teams losing:
- Oklahoma
- Wisconsin