College Football Playoff forecast: November 19, 2017

Top teams forecasted to make the College Football Playoff based on a simulation of the remaining season and conference championship games:
  1. Wisconsin
  2. Alabama
  3. Clemson
  4. Georgia
  5. Miami
  6. Oklahoma
  7. Ohio St
  8. Notre Dame
  9. Auburn
Things are looking great for Wisconsin! As with last week. Wisconsin is my “most likely” to make the playoff here because Wisconsin has clinched a berth in the Big10 championship game and has a chance to be ranked in the top four even if they lose. I do not think they would be selected if they lose, but mathematically they would have a chance, especially since other top Big 10 teams have 2 losses. Miami ranks low because they have to go through Clemson to get to the playoff. Oklahoma seems low here, especially compared to last week. Beating bad teams–Kansas in this case–penalizes otherwise good teams. The issue here is that teams like Oklahoma that are likely to be ranked 4th at the end of the season are a little sensitive in the simulation because they often fall so close to the cutoff (only 4 teams make the playoff).