Earlier in the week I posted my forecast for which teams would make the College Football Playoff based on a simulation of the remaining season and conference championship games. I found that Notre Dame, Alabama, and Clemson to be locks for the playoffs. Three teams are essentially playing for the last spot:
- Ohio St
Here is what I find in my simulations:
- Ohio State will be ranked in the top 4 in 72% of the simulations with a win over Northwestern.
- Both Alabama and Georgia will be ranked in the top 4 in 100% of the simulations if Alabama loses to Georgia.
- Georgia will be ranked in the top 4 in 6.5% of the simulations if Georgia loses to Alabama.
- Oklahoma will be ranked in the top 4 in 3.5% of the simulations with a win over Texas. Oklahoma needs Ohio State and Georgia to lose. However, Oklahoma is in the top 4 in 10% of the simulations if they beat Texas by 60.
- Central Florida will not make the playoff this year regardless of what happens.
Keep in mind that the committee will not necessarily choose the top 4 ranked teams to be in the playoffs, so my numbers above are not a perfect prediction.