what Badger Bracketology is reading

1. We love the New York Times Fourth Down bot! Here is an article about its updated methodology for analyzing NFL fourth down decisions.
2. Regression to the mean or reversion to the mean? It’s more likely the latter. Michael Lopez explains.
3. Wayne Winston has a coursera course on sports analytics.
4. What is the percentage chance a team wins the game based on the closing point spread? A 7 point favorite wins 70% of the time.
5. FiveThirtyEight has a simulation for the NFL season that is similar in spirit to ours. They have a short video explaining why the best teams in their forecasting model doesn’t win as many games as you would expect.