NCAA Football Rankings: November 5, 2017

Here are this week’s composite rankings. I again have Georgia at #1 and Wisconsin at #6. The Ohio State University tumbled to #14. Various rankings that I aggregate have UCF in vastly different places. I have UCF at #5 in my aggregate rankings below, but I think that is high.

I post my full rankings on the NCAAF rankings tab every week.

1 Georgia
2 Alabama
3 Notre Dame
4 Clemson
5 UCF
6 Wisconsin
7 Penn St
8 Miami FL
9 Michigan St
10 Oklahoma
11 TCU
12 USC
13 Washington
14 Ohio St
15 Iowa
16 Michigan
17 Washington St
18 Memphis
19 Auburn
20 Boise St
21 Virginia Tech
22 Oklahoma St
23 Mississippi St
24 Toledo
25 Iowa St

Here are the B1G teams, ranked.

6 Wisconsin
7 Penn St
9 Michigan St
14 Ohio St
15 Iowa
16 Michigan
28 Northwestern
51 Nebraska
53 Purdue
69 Minnesota
73 Maryland
86 Rutgers
87 Indiana
106 Illinois

College Football Playoff forecast: October 29, 2017

Top teams forecasted to make the College Football Playoff based on a simulation of the remaining season and conference championship games:

1 Georgia
2 Notre Dame
3 Penn St
4 Wisconsin
5 Alabama
6 Clemson
7 Ohio St
8 Virginia Tech
9 Miami FL
10 Michigan St

If you are interested in the rankings (the top ranked teams NOW), you can find them here

 

NCAA Football Rankings: October 29, 2017

Here are this week’s composite rankings. This week we have a new #1!

This ranking combines several of the Markov chain based rankings I’ve worked on over the years. I post my full rankings on the NCAAF rankings tab every week.

1 Georgia
2 Alabama
3 Penn St
4 Notre Dame
5 UCF
6 Wisconsin
7 Clemson
8 Ohio St
9 Oklahoma
10 TCU
11 Miami FL
12 USC
13 Michigan St
14 Oklahoma St
15 Virginia Tech
16 Washington
17 Memphis
18 Iowa St
19 Mississippi St
20 Iowa
21 Michigan
22 Boise St
23 San Diego St
24 Stanford
25 Washington St

Here are the B1G teams, ranked.

 

3 Penn St
6 Wisconsin
8 Ohio St
13 Michigan St
20 Iowa
21 Michigan
34 Northwestern
49 Nebraska
57 Maryland
61 Minnesota
66 Purdue
80 Indiana
96 Rutgers
101 Illinois

NCAA Football Rankings: October 22, 2017

Here are this week’s composite rankings. This ranking combines several of the Markov chain based rankings I’ve worked on over the years. I post my full rankings on the NCAAF rankings tab every week.

1 Alabama
2 Penn St
3 Georgia
4 Wisconsin
5 TCU
6 UCF
7 Notre Dame
8 Clemson
9 Miami FL
10 Michigan St
11 Ohio St
12 South Florida
13 Boise St
14 Oklahoma
15 Washington St
16 USC
17 NC State
18 Oklahoma St
19 Virginia Tech
20 Washington
21 Stanford
22 Memphis
23 Michigan
24 Auburn
25 South Carolina

Here are the B1G teams, ranked.

2 Penn St
4 Wisconsin
10 Michigan St
11 Ohio St
23 Michigan
28 Iowa
47 Northwestern
58 Minnesota
64 Purdue
66 Nebraska
71 Indiana
74 Maryland
90 Rutgers
106 Illinois

 

NCAA Football rankings: October 15, 2017

Here are this week’s composite rankings. This ranking combines several of the Markov chain based rankings I’ve worked on over the years. I post my full rankings on the NCAAF rankings tab every week.

1 Alabama
2 Penn St
3 Georgia
4 TCU
5 Clemson
6 USC
7 UCF
8 Wisconsin
9 Ohio St
10 Michigan St
11 Notre Dame
12 NC State
13 Michigan
14 Miami FL
15 Stanford
16 San Diego St
17 Washington St
18 Oklahoma
19 Washington
20 Iowa
21 South Carolina
22 South Florida
23 Oklahoma St
24 Texas A&M
25 Boise St

Here are the B1G teams, ranked.

2 Penn St
8 Wisconsin
9 Ohio St
10 Michigan St
13 Michigan
20 Iowa
50 Purdue
51 Indiana
57 Nebraska
60 Northwestern
67 Minnesota
69 Maryland
95 Illinois
105 Rutgers

NCAA Football rankings: October 9, 2017

This year I am posting composite rankings that combine several of the Markov chain based rankings I’ve worked on over the years. I do so by wrapping a Markov chain around the rankings to identify how to order teams when different ranking models disagree about rank. I’ll post my full rankings on the NCAAF rankings tab every week. These are how I rank the teams at present. I will post playoff forecasts starting next week.

October 9, 2017 NCAA Football rankings:

1 Clemson
2 Georgia
3 Alabama
4 Penn State
5 Washington State
6 Texas Christian
7 San Diego State
8 U-C-F
9 Southern Cal
10 Michigan State
11 Notre Dame
12 Wisconsin
13 Miami-Florida
14 Washington
15 Ohio State
16 Navy
17 Michigan
18 No Carolina State
19 Kentucky
20 South Florida
21 Auburn
22 Iowa
23 Stanford
24 Virginia Tech
25 Houston

Here are the B1G teams, ranked.

4 Penn St
10 Michigan St
12 Wisconsin
15 Ohio St
17 Michigan
22 Iowa
37 Maryland
43 Purdue
45 Indiana
52 Minnesota
60 Nebraska
73 Northwestern
92 Illinois
112 Rutgers

 

NCAA men’s Division I basketball rankings: Final 2017 rankings

Here are my final men’s college basketball rankings.  These are final after all games have been finished. I posted the full ranking under the “NCAA BB rankings” tab. I’m happy to say that Wisconsin has re-entered the top 25!

1 North Carolina
2 Gonzaga
3 Kentucky
4 Kansas
5 Villanova
6 Duke
7 Oregon
8 West Virginia
9 Florida
10 Arizona
11 UCLA
12 Wisconsin
13 Michigan
14 Purdue
15 Iowa St
16 Baylor
17 Cincinnati
18 Louisville
19 Notre Dame
20 Florida St
21 Xavier
22 Virginia
23 South Carolina
24 Butler
25 TCU

Here are the B1G teams, ranked. On Wisconsin!

12 Wisconsin
13 Michigan
14 Purdue
32 Northwestern
35 Minnesota
36 Michigan St
48 Indiana
49 Maryland
54 Illinois
61 Iowa
81 Ohio St
87 Penn St
113 Nebraska
115 Rutgers

 

Tips for picking a winning bracket from Badger Bracketology

These tips for winning your March Madness bracket pool is reblogged from Punk Rock Operations Research.

1 Ignore RPI, use math based rankings instead to take strength of schedule into account.

Ken Massey has a rankings clearinghouse here: http://www.masseyratings.com/cb/compare.htm. I’m happy to say that I’m the only women contributor to this list :) My rankings are posted there and can be found here.

https://twitter.com/masseyratings/status/839626182169604096

2 Pay attention to the seeds

The seeds matter because they determine a team’s path to the Final Four. Some seeds generate more upsets than others, such as 7-10 seeds and 5-12 seeds. Historically, 6-11 seeds go the longest before facing a 1 or 2 seed. Teams with an 8 seed face a tough Round-of-64 opponent and have to face a 1 seed next (sorry Badgers).

However, there are plenty of upsets. The Final Four has been composed of all 1 seeds only once. See BracketOdds at Illinois for more information on how the seeds have fared.

Having said that, the committee doesn’t always get it right. There are Some teams like SMU, Wichita State, and Xavier are underseeded and are poised to upset. Also, Villanova is the overall #1 seed and has a 15% chance of winning the entire tournament, which is low, meaning that there isn’t a strong favorite this year.

3 Don’t pick Kansas to win it all

Be strategic. The point is NOT to maximize your points, it’s to get more points than your opponents. I’ve been getting in the habit of picking my Final Four first and filling in the rest later.  You can pick the eventual winner (say, Villanova) and still lose your pool if everyone else picks Villanova. FiveThirtyEight estimates that Villanova has a 15% chance of winning the tournament, meaning that another team is probably going to win.

One way to be strategic is to pick an undervalued top team to win the tournament. For example, last year Kansas was selected as the overall winner in 27% of brackets on ESPN and in 62% of Final Fours) despite having an overall 19% chance of winning (538). On the other hand, UNC was selected as the overall winner in 8% of brackets (with a 15% win probability). Getting UNC right last year helped vault past those who picked Kansas.

4 It’s random

The way brackets are scored means that randomness rules. It’s easy to forget that a good process does not guarantee the best outcome in any give year. A good process yields better outcomes on average but your mileage may vary any given year (at least that what I tell myself when I don’t win my pool!)

Small pools are better if you have a good process. The more people in a pool, the higher chance that someone will accidentally make a good bracket with a bad process. It’s like stormtroopers shooting at a target. They’re terrible, but if they take enough shots they’ll hit the target once. 

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