College Football Playoff forecast: October 29, 2017

Top teams forecasted to make the College Football Playoff based on a simulation of the remaining season and conference championship games:

1 Georgia
2 Notre Dame
3 Penn St
4 Wisconsin
5 Alabama
6 Clemson
7 Ohio St
8 Virginia Tech
9 Miami FL
10 Michigan St

If you are interested in the rankings (the top ranked teams NOW), you can find them here


NCAA men’s Division I basketball rankings, January 16, 2017

Here are this week’s rankings.  The full ranking is under the “NCAA BB rankings” tab.

2 Villanova
3 Gonzaga
4 Kentucky
5 North Carolina
6 Florida St
7 Kansas
8 Creighton
9 West Virginia
10 Notre Dame
11 Baylor
12 Duke
13 Butler
14 Arizona
15 Louisville
16 Purdue
17 SMU
18 Oregon
19 Florida
20 USC
21 Minnesota
22 St Marys CA
23 Northwestern
24 Cincinnati
25 Maryland
26 UNC Wilmington
27 Nevada
28 Wisconsin

Here are the B1G teams, ranked.

16 Purdue
21 Minnesota
23 Northwestern
25 Maryland
28 Wisconsin
44 Indiana
55 Michigan
69 Michigan St
76 Illinois
81 Iowa
91 Ohio St
97 Penn St
103 Rutgers
169 Nebraska

Two minute bracketology: Laura Albert McLay talks about bracketology and March Madness

The University Communications group at the University of Wisconsin-Madison asked me to film a short video about bracketology, math (what is a Markov chain?), and what we can learn from bring math into bracketology. It was a wonderful experience, and I’m thrilled with the final product. I can’t take credit — the video was produced by Justin Bomberg and the video and reflects his vision.

The video is just under 3 minutes long. We filmed this before the selections were made, and as you can see, I recommend picking 10 seeds to upset 7 seeds. And of course, Wisconsin ended up seeded 7. Sorry team! Also, I naively agreed to attempt to attempt to spin a basketball on my finger while the film was rolling…I think you’ll easily understand why I’m more comfortable with the math.

I’m looking forward to watching the tournament. Go Badgers!

Or check it out on FaceBook.

[reblogged from Punk Rock Operations Research]

what Badger Bracketology is reading

  1. We love the New York Times Fourth Down bot! Here is an article about its updated methodology for analyzing NFL fourth down decisions.
  2. Regression to the mean or reversion to the mean? It’s more likely the latter. Michael Lopez explains.
  3. Wayne Winston has a coursera course on sports analytics.
  4. What is the percentage chance a team wins the game based on the closing point spread? A 7 point favorite wins 70% of the time.
  5. FiveThirtyEight has a simulation for the NFL season that is similar in spirit to ours. They have a short video explaining why the best teams in their forecasting model doesn’t win as many games as you would expect.