Final Four men’s basketball rankings

March 29, 2018

I’ve re-ranked the men’s basketball teams based on all games leading up to the Final Four. The remaining four teams (in boldface) are ranked 1st, 3rd, 7th, and 19th.

1 Villanova
2 Virginia
3 Kansas
4 Duke
5 Cincinnati
6 Purdue
7 Michigan
8 Michigan St
9 Xavier
10 Gonzaga
11 West Virginia
12 North Carolina
13 Texas Tech
14 Tennessee
15 Kentucky
16 Clemson
17 Nevada
18 Houston
19 Loyola-Chicago
20 Arizona
21 Auburn
22 Ohio St
23 Wichita St
24 St Marys CA
25 Kansas St

Where do the Sweet 16 basketball teams fall in the rankings?

Here are where the Sweet 16 teams were ranked on Selection Sunday in my composite rankings, creating by combining several ranking methods:

1 Villanova
4 Purdue
5 Kansas
7 Duke
8 Gonzaga
11 Michigan
12 West Virginia
18 Nevada
19 Texas Tech
20 Kentucky
22 Clemson
25 Loyola-Chicago
31 Kansas St
32 Texas A&M
58 Syracuse
68 Florida St

For comparison, here are where the Sweet 16 teams were ranked on Selection Sunday in my Modified Logistic Regression Markov Chain rankings, one of the rankings used in the composite rankings:

1     Villanova
3     Kansas
5     Duke
6     Purdue
8     West Virginia
11    Michigan
13    Kentucky
15    Gonzaga
16    Texas Tech
20    Clemson
24    Nevada
26    Texas A&M
27    Kansas St
41    Syracuse
43    Loyola-Chicago
56    Florida St

Some of the lowest seeded teams left in the tournament, such as Nevada and Loyola-Chicago, are highly ranked.

Note: on Selection Sunday, I had UMBC ranked 140th and 189th in the composite and mLRMC rankings, respectively. Virginia was ranked 2nd in both of my rankings. It was quite an upset.


NCAA men’s Division I basketball rankings, February 26, 2018

Here are my composite Markov chain rankings for February 26, 2018.  The full ranking is under the “NCAA BB rankings” tab.

  1. Michigan St
  2. Villanova
  3. Virginia
  4. Purdue
  5. Cincinnati
  6. Duke
  7. Kansas
  8. Auburn
  9. Xavier
  10. Gonzaga
  11. North Carolina
  12. Wichita St
  13. Ohio St
  14. Nevada
  15. St Marys CA
  16. West Virginia
  17. Texas Tech
  18. Michigan
  19. TCU
  20. Clemson
  21. Arizona
  22. Houston
  23. Tennessee
  24. USC
  25. Rhode Island
  26. Seton Hall
  27. Loyola-Chicago
  28. Virginia Tech
  29. Texas A&M
  30. Arkansas

Here are the B1G teams, ranked. Four are in the top 25. Wisconsin broke into the top 100 this week.

1 Michigan St
4 Purdue
13 Ohio St
18 Michigan
36 Nebraska
42 Maryland
44 Penn St
86 Indiana
97 Wisconsin
99 Minnesota
110 Northwestern
124 Iowa
126 Illinois
169 Rutgers

NCAA men’s Division I basketball rankings, January 16, 2017

Here are this week’s rankings.  The full ranking is under the “NCAA BB rankings” tab.

2 Villanova
3 Gonzaga
4 Kentucky
5 North Carolina
6 Florida St
7 Kansas
8 Creighton
9 West Virginia
10 Notre Dame
11 Baylor
12 Duke
13 Butler
14 Arizona
15 Louisville
16 Purdue
17 SMU
18 Oregon
19 Florida
20 USC
21 Minnesota
22 St Marys CA
23 Northwestern
24 Cincinnati
25 Maryland
26 UNC Wilmington
27 Nevada
28 Wisconsin

Here are the B1G teams, ranked.

16 Purdue
21 Minnesota
23 Northwestern
25 Maryland
28 Wisconsin
44 Indiana
55 Michigan
69 Michigan St
76 Illinois
81 Iowa
91 Ohio St
97 Penn St
103 Rutgers
169 Nebraska

Two minute bracketology: Laura Albert McLay talks about bracketology and March Madness

The University Communications group at the University of Wisconsin-Madison asked me to film a short video about bracketology, math (what is a Markov chain?), and what we can learn from bring math into bracketology. It was a wonderful experience, and I’m thrilled with the final product. I can’t take credit — the video was produced by Justin Bomberg and the video and reflects his vision.

The video is just under 3 minutes long. We filmed this before the selections were made, and as you can see, I recommend picking 10 seeds to upset 7 seeds. And of course, Wisconsin ended up seeded 7. Sorry team! Also, I naively agreed to attempt to attempt to spin a basketball on my finger while the film was rolling…I think you’ll easily understand why I’m more comfortable with the math.

I’m looking forward to watching the tournament. Go Badgers!

Or check it out on FaceBook.

[reblogged from Punk Rock Operations Research]

what Badger Bracketology is reading

  1. We love the New York Times Fourth Down bot! Here is an article about its updated methodology for analyzing NFL fourth down decisions.
  2. Regression to the mean or reversion to the mean? It’s more likely the latter. Michael Lopez explains.
  3. Wayne Winston has a coursera course on sports analytics.
  4. What is the percentage chance a team wins the game based on the closing point spread? A 7 point favorite wins 70% of the time.
  5. FiveThirtyEight has a simulation for the NFL season that is similar in spirit to ours. They have a short video explaining why the best teams in their forecasting model doesn’t win as many games as you would expect.