College Football Playoff forecast: November 19, 2017

Top teams forecasted to make the College Football Playoff based on a simulation of the remaining season and conference championship games:

  1. Wisconsin
  2. Alabama
  3. Clemson
  4. Georgia
  5. Miami
  6. Oklahoma
  7. Ohio St
  8. Notre Dame
  9. Auburn

Things are looking great for Wisconsin! As with last week. Wisconsin is my “most likely” to make the playoff here because Wisconsin has clinched a berth in the Big10 championship game and has a chance to be ranked in the top four even if they lose. I do not think they would be selected if they lose, but mathematically they would have a chance, especially since other top Big 10 teams have 2 losses.

Miami ranks low because they have to go through Clemson to get to the playoff. Oklahoma seems low here, especially compared to last week. Beating bad teams–Kansas in this case–penalizes otherwise good teams. The issue here is that teams like Oklahoma that are likely to be ranked 4th at the end of the season are a little sensitive in the simulation because they often fall so close to the cutoff (only 4 teams make the playoff).

 

 

 

NCAA Football Rankings: November 19, 2017

Here are this week’s composite rankings. I have Alabama at #1 and Wisconsin at #2. Georgia and Notre Dame tumble to #8 and #9, respectively. Various rankings that I aggregate have UCF in vastly different places. I have UCF at #6 in my aggregate rankings below, but I think that is high. I do not believe UCF will be one of the top four ranked teams at the end of the season.

I post my full rankings on the NCAAF rankings tab every week.

1 Alabama
2 Wisconsin
3 Clemson
4 Miami FL
5 Georgia
6 Notre Dame
7 Penn St
8 UCF
9 Oklahoma
10 Ohio St
11 Auburn
12 USC
13 Michigan St
14 Boise St
15 TCU
16 Washington
17 Washington St
18 Memphis
19 Stanford
20 Northwestern
21 Mississippi St
22 Michigan
23 Oklahoma St
24 LSU
25 Virginia Tech

Here are the B1G teams, ranked.

 

2 Wisconsin
7 Penn St
10 Ohio St
13 Michigan St
20 Northwestern
22 Michigan
26 Iowa
50 Purdue
63 Indiana
69 Nebraska
70 Minnesota
81 Maryland
98 Rutgers
113 Illinois

College Football Playoff forecast: November 12, 2017

Top teams forecasted to make the College Football Playoff based on a simulation of the remaining season and conference championship games:

  1. Wisconsin
  2. Alabama
  3. Oklahoma
  4. Clemson
  5. Miami FL
  6. Georgia
  7. Ohio St
  8. Auburn
  9. Notre Dame
  10. Penn St

Things are looking great for Wisconsin! They are my “most likely” to make the playoff here because Wisconsin has clinched a berth in the Big10 champtionship game and has a chance to be ranked in the top four even if they lose. I do not think they would be selected if they lose, but mathematically they would have a chance.

It’s interesting to see who is most likely to be ranked fifth and just miss out on the playoff:

  • Georgia
  • Notre Dame
  • Penn State
  • Oklahoma
  • Clemson
  • Wisconsin
  • The Ohio State University
  • Central Florida (UCF) - UCF does not appear likely to be ranked as one of the top four teams, even if they win the rest of their games. They could be ranked as high as fifth.

 

NCAA Football Rankings: November 12, 2017

Here are this week’s composite rankings. I have Alabama at #1 and Wisconsin at #2. Georgia and Notre Dame tumble to #8 and #9, respectively. Various rankings that I aggregate have UCF in vastly different places. I have UCF at #6 in my aggregate rankings below, but I think that is high. I do not believe UCF will be one of the top four ranked teams at the end of the season.

I post my full rankings on the NCAAF rankings tab every week.

1 Alabama
2 Wisconsin
3 Clemson
4 Miami FL
5 Penn St
6 UCF
7 Oklahoma
8 Georgia
9 Notre Dame
10 Ohio St
11 USC
12 Auburn
13 Michigan St
14 Washington St
15 Oklahoma St
16 TCU
17 Michigan
18 Boise St
19 Iowa
20 Washington
21 Memphis
22 Stanford
23 Mississippi St
24 NC State
25 Northwestern

Here are the B1G teams, ranked.

2 Wisconsin
5 Penn St
10 Ohio St
13 Michigan St
17 Michigan
19 Iowa
25 Northwestern
57 Purdue
60 Minnesota
67 Nebraska
77 Maryland
78 Indiana
91 Rutgers
111 Illinois

College Football Playoff forecast: November 5, 2017

Top teams forecasted to make the College Football Playoff based on a simulation of the remaining season and conference championship games:

1 Georgia
2 Alabama
3 Notre Dame
4 Wisconsin (woo hoo!)
5 Clemson
6 Michigan St
7 Miami FL
8 Washington
9 Ohio St
10 Penn St

Things are looking good for Wisconsin! Ohio State and Penn State have a small chance for making the playoff, but Penn St is eliminated for all practical purposes. It looks like the Big 12 and the Pac 10 could be left out of the playoff.

NCAA Football Rankings: November 5, 2017

Here are this week’s composite rankings. I again have Georgia at #1 and Wisconsin at #6. The Ohio State University tumbled to #14. Various rankings that I aggregate have UCF in vastly different places. I have UCF at #5 in my aggregate rankings below, but I think that is high.

I post my full rankings on the NCAAF rankings tab every week.

1 Georgia
2 Alabama
3 Notre Dame
4 Clemson
5 UCF
6 Wisconsin
7 Penn St
8 Miami FL
9 Michigan St
10 Oklahoma
11 TCU
12 USC
13 Washington
14 Ohio St
15 Iowa
16 Michigan
17 Washington St
18 Memphis
19 Auburn
20 Boise St
21 Virginia Tech
22 Oklahoma St
23 Mississippi St
24 Toledo
25 Iowa St

Here are the B1G teams, ranked.

6 Wisconsin
7 Penn St
9 Michigan St
14 Ohio St
15 Iowa
16 Michigan
28 Northwestern
51 Nebraska
53 Purdue
69 Minnesota
73 Maryland
86 Rutgers
87 Indiana
106 Illinois

College Football Playoff forecast: October 29, 2017

Top teams forecasted to make the College Football Playoff based on a simulation of the remaining season and conference championship games:

1 Georgia
2 Notre Dame
3 Penn St
4 Wisconsin
5 Alabama
6 Clemson
7 Ohio St
8 Virginia Tech
9 Miami FL
10 Michigan St

If you are interested in the rankings (the top ranked teams NOW), you can find them here

 

NCAA Football Rankings: October 29, 2017

Here are this week’s composite rankings. This week we have a new #1!

This ranking combines several of the Markov chain based rankings I’ve worked on over the years. I post my full rankings on the NCAAF rankings tab every week.

1 Georgia
2 Alabama
3 Penn St
4 Notre Dame
5 UCF
6 Wisconsin
7 Clemson
8 Ohio St
9 Oklahoma
10 TCU
11 Miami FL
12 USC
13 Michigan St
14 Oklahoma St
15 Virginia Tech
16 Washington
17 Memphis
18 Iowa St
19 Mississippi St
20 Iowa
21 Michigan
22 Boise St
23 San Diego St
24 Stanford
25 Washington St

Here are the B1G teams, ranked.

 

3 Penn St
6 Wisconsin
8 Ohio St
13 Michigan St
20 Iowa
21 Michigan
34 Northwestern
49 Nebraska
57 Maryland
61 Minnesota
66 Purdue
80 Indiana
96 Rutgers
101 Illinois

NCAA Football Rankings: October 22, 2017

Here are this week’s composite rankings. This ranking combines several of the Markov chain based rankings I’ve worked on over the years. I post my full rankings on the NCAAF rankings tab every week.

1 Alabama
2 Penn St
3 Georgia
4 Wisconsin
5 TCU
6 UCF
7 Notre Dame
8 Clemson
9 Miami FL
10 Michigan St
11 Ohio St
12 South Florida
13 Boise St
14 Oklahoma
15 Washington St
16 USC
17 NC State
18 Oklahoma St
19 Virginia Tech
20 Washington
21 Stanford
22 Memphis
23 Michigan
24 Auburn
25 South Carolina

Here are the B1G teams, ranked.

2 Penn St
4 Wisconsin
10 Michigan St
11 Ohio St
23 Michigan
28 Iowa
47 Northwestern
58 Minnesota
64 Purdue
66 Nebraska
71 Indiana
74 Maryland
90 Rutgers
106 Illinois