hear a talk about Badger Bracketology on 3/1 @ 12:05 at UW-Madison

I will be giving a talk tomorrow on bracketology.

Chaos and Complex Systems Seminar:
Tuesday, March 1
12:05-1:00 p.m.
4274 Chamberlin Hall,

How to rank sports teams and forecast game outcomes using math models.

Laura Albert McLay, Industrial and Systems Engineering

Selecting the teams for the College Football Playoff for NCAA men’s football is a controversial process performed by the selection committee. We present a method for forecasting the four team playoff weeks before the selection committee makes this decision. Our method uses a modified logistic regression/Markov chain model for rating the teams, predicting the outcomes of the unplayed games, and simulating the unplayed games in the remainder of the season to forecast the teams that will be selected for the four team playoff. We will discuss how the method can be applied to rank NCAA basketball teams and fill out a bracket in the tournament.

Refreshments will be served.

 

NCAA men’s Division I basketball rankings, February 29, 2016

Here are the new men’s NCAA basketball rankings as of February 29, 2016. I have the Top 25 below; the full ranking is under the “NCAA BB rankings” tab.

1 Kansas
2 Villanova
3 North Carolina
4 Michigan St
5 Oklahoma
6 Virginia
7 Xavier
8 Louisville
9 Miami FL
10 West Virginia
11 Duke
12 Utah
13 Oregon
14 Iowa St
15 Maryland
16 Iowa
17 Purdue
18 Indiana
19 Arizona
20 Kentucky
21 Baylor
22 California
23 Texas A&M
24 South Carolina
25 Pittsburgh

 

Here are the B1G teams, ranked. Nice job to the Badgers, who continued to move up in the rankings.

4 Michigan St
15 Maryland
16 Iowa
17 Purdue
18 Indiana
32 Wisconsin
39 Ohio St
42 Michigan
94 Northwestern
98 Illinois
103 Penn St
108 Nebraska
178 Minnesota
234 Rutgers

NCAA men’s Division I basketball rankings, February 22, 2016

Here are the new men’s NCAA basketball rankings as of February 22, 2016. I have the Top 25 below; the full ranking is under the “NCAA BB rankings” tab.

1 Villanova
2 North Carolina
3 Kansas
4 Oklahoma
5 Michigan St
6 Xavier
7 Louisville
8 Virginia
9 Maryland
10 Duke
11 Miami FL
12 Arizona
13 Indiana
14 Purdue
15 West Virginia
16 Iowa St
17 Oregon
18 Utah
19 Iowa
20 Kentucky
21 Baylor
22 South Carolina
23 Texas A&M
24 Syracuse
25 Cincinnati

Here are the B1G teams, ranked. Nice job to the Badgers, who continued to move up in the rankings this week by beating my alma mater:

5 Michigan St
9 Maryland
13 Indiana
14 Purdue
19 Iowa
36 Wisconsin
40 Michigan
50 Ohio St
91 Northwestern
97 Nebraska
99 Illinois
104 Penn St
178 Minnesota
228 Rutgers

 

NCAA men’s Division I basketball rankings, February 15, 2016

Here are the new men’s NCAA basketball rankings as of February 15, 2016. I have the Top 25 below; the full ranking is under the “NCAA BB rankings” tab.

  1. Villanova
  2. North Carolina
  3. Michigan St
  4. Oklahoma
  5. Kansas
  6. Virginia
  7. Maryland
  8. Xavier
  9. Iowa
  10. Miami FL
  11. West Virginia
  12. Louisville
  13. Arizona
  14. Iowa St
  15. Duke
  16. Purdue
  17. Oregon
  18. Indiana
  19. Kentucky
  20. South Carolina
  21. Utah
  22. Syracuse
  23. Notre Dame
  24. Cincinnati
  25. Texas A&M

Here are the B1G teams, ranked. Nice job to the Badgers, who moved up to #42 this week:

3 Michigan St
7 Maryland
9 Iowa
16 Purdue
18 Indiana
39 Michigan
42 Wisconsin
57 Ohio St
83 Northwestern
87 Nebraska
103 Illinois
121 Penn St
183 Minnesota
220 Rutgers

NCAA men’s Division I basketball rankings, February 8, 2016

Here are the new men’s NCAA basketball rankings as of February 8, 2016. I have the Top 25 below; the full ranking is under the “NCAA BB rankings” tab.

1 Villanova
2 Oklahoma
3 North Carolina
4 Michigan St
5 Maryland
6 Iowa
7 Xavier
8 Virginia
9 Louisville
10 Kansas
11 Oregon
12 West Virginia
13 Purdue
14 Iowa St
15 Miami FL
16 Arizona
17 Duke
18 Indiana
19 South Carolina
20 Texas A&M
21 Utah
22 Syracuse
23 Kentucky
24 Baylor
25 Florida St

Here are the B1G teams, ranked:

4 Michigan St
5 Maryland
6 Iowa
13 Purdue
18 Indiana
41 Michigan
53 Wisconsin
66 Ohio St
75 Northwestern
89 Illinois
94 Nebraska
103 Penn St
199 Minnesota
202 Rutgers

NCAA men’s Division I basketball rankings, February 1, 2016

Here are the new men’s NCAA basketball rankings as of February 1, 2016. I have the Top 25 below; the full ranking is under the “NCAA BB rankings” tab.

  1. North Carolina
  2. Oklahoma
  3. Michigan St
  4. Villanova
  5. Xavier
  6. Maryland
  7. Purdue
  8. Iowa
  9. Virginia
  10. Louisville
  11. Iowa St
  12. Kansas
  13. Oregon
  14. Texas A&M
  15. Arizona
  16. West Virginia
  17. Miami FL
  18. Indiana
  19. Utah
  20. Syracuse
  21. South Carolina
  22. Pittsburgh
  23. Duke
  24. Baylor
  25. SMU

Here are the B1G teams, ranked:

3 Michigan St
6 Maryland
7 Purdue
8 Iowa
18 Indiana
37 Michigan
48 Ohio St
50 Wisconsin
68 Northwestern
91 Illinois
100 Nebraska
110 Penn St
167 Minnesota
189 Rutgers