hear a talk about Badger Bracketology on 12/9 @ 12:30 at UW-Madison

I will be talking about Badger Bracketology this week.

Time: Wednesday, December 9th, 12:30pm.

Location: Wisconsin Institute for Discovery, room 3280.

Speaker: Laura Albert McLay, Associate Professor, Department of Industrial and Systems Engineering, UW-Madison.

Title: A Modified Logistic Regression Markov Chain Model for Forecasting the College Football Playoff.

Abstract: Selecting the teams for the College Football Playoff for NCAA Division IA men’s football is a controversial process performed by the selection committee. We present a method for forecasting the four team playoff weeks before the selection committee makes this decision. Our method uses a modified logistic regression/Markov chain model for rating the teams, predicting the outcomes of the unplayed games, and simulating the unplayed games in the remainder of the season to forecast the teams that will be selected for the four team playoff. 

Things I will discuss:

  • Did the College Football Playoff committee get it right?
  • Can math get it right?
  • Was Iowa really overrated?

I’ll answer these questions and more. And yes, there will be lots of badger pictures!

FBall_Purdue_SORT13_5856

final NCAA football rankings

Here are the final Badger Bracketology rankings. We think the committee got it right.

mLRMC rankings:

  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Michigan State
  4. Oklahoma
  5. Ohio State
  6. Stanford
  7. Houston
  8. Iowa
  9. Notre Dame
  10. Florida State
  11. North Carolina
  12. Western Kentucky
  13. Mississippi
  14. Texas Christian
  15. Michigan
  16. Oklahoma State
  17. Oregon
  18. Florida
  19. Bowling Green
  20. Temple
  21. Navy
  22. Northwestern
  23. Utah
  24. Baylor
  25. Memphis

ln(mLRMC) rankings:

  1. Alabama
  2. Clemson
  3. Michigan State
  4. Oklahoma
  5. Stanford
  6. Ohio State
  7. Iowa
  8. Houston
  9. Notre Dame
  10. Michigan
  11. North Carolina
  12. Mississippi
  13. Florida
  14. Florida State
  15. Northwestern
  16. Texas Christian
  17. Oregon
  18. Western Kentucky
  19. Oklahoma State
  20. Louisiana State
  21. Temple
  22. Bowling Green
  23. Memphis
  24. Utah
  25. Baylor

 

pre-championship game NCAA football rankings

Last week, we posted our college football playoff forecasts, from most likely to least likely to make the playoff. Our playoff forecasts then were as follows:

1 Oklahoma
2 Alabama
3 Clemson
4 Michigan State
5 Iowa

We note that Oklahoma was #1 because they do not have any remaining games in their schedule. With no uncertainly, they have no risk and will certainly make the playoff. They are not forecasted to be a #1 seed.

The rankings captured who was best at the time. areHere are our two lists of current rankings. I like the ln(mLRMC) rankings – they seemed to do a little better at getting it right. Both models rank Ohio State near the top, which is interesting because Ohio State will almost certainly not make the playoff due to not being in the B1G championship game. It’s worth noting that the forecasting component of our model recognizes this fact.

mLRMC rankings (prior to games on December 5):

  1. Oklahoma
  2. Alabama
  3. Clemson
  4. Ohio State
  5. Michigan State
  6. Iowa
  7. Notre Dame
  8. Stanford
  9. Houston
  10. Florida State
  11. North Carolina
  12. Mississippi
  13. TCU
  14. Michigan
  15. Florida
  16. Oklahoma State
  17. Baylor
  18. Oregon
  19. Temple
  20. Navy
  21. Northwestern
  22. Utah
  23. Western Kentucky
  24. Memphis
  25. USC

ln(mLRMC) rankings (prior to the games on December 5)

  1. Clemson
  2. Alabama
  3. Oklahoma
  4. Michigan State
  5. Ohio State
  6. Iowa
  7. Notre Dame
  8. Stanford
  9. North Carolina
  10. Florida
  11. Michigan
  12. Houston
  13. Mississippi
  14. TCU
  15. Florida State
  16. Northwestern
  17. Oregon
  18. Oklahoma State
  19. LSU
  20. Temple
  21. Baylor
  22. Utah
  23. Memphis
  24. USC
  25. Navy

NCAA football playoff forecasts, week 13

We are down to our final college football playoffs. Conference championship games are very important, but at this point every other game is inconsequential. There is no Big 12 championship, and both of our models have Oklahoma in the College Football Playoff in every simulation. It’s worth noting that Oklahoma is not currently ranked #1 according to our rankings, but the math suggests they will certainly make it into the playoff since they have no other remaining games (no games = no risk).

We expect Alabama, Clemson, and Michigan State to round out the playoff. We believe that Iowa will make the playoff if they win the B1G championship. We do not think that realistically, Ohio State or North Carolina have a chance to make it into the playoff. However, mathematically, these teams could end up in the top 4. We have noted before that the committee will almost certainly choose the most deserving teams not the best teams–the simulations only report the best teams.

———- mLRMC Method: Top Teams to make the 4-team playoff ————
1 Oklahoma
2 Alabama
3 Clemson
4 Michigan State
5 Iowa
6 Ohio State

———- ln(mLRMC) Method: Top Teams to make the 4-team playoff ————
1 Oklahoma
2 Alabama
3 Clemson
4 Michigan State
5 Iowa
6 North Carolina
7 Stanford