Final 2018 men’s D1 basketball team rankings

Here are my final 2018 composite Markov chain rankings as of April 3, 2018.  The full ranking is under the “NCAA BB rankings” tab.

1 Villanova
2 Duke
3 Virginia
4 Kansas
5 Michigan
6 Cincinnati
7 Purdue
8 Michigan St
9 Xavier
10 Gonzaga
11 West Virginia
12 North Carolina
13 Texas Tech
14 Kentucky
15 Tennessee
16 Clemson
17 Nevada
18 Houston
19 Loyola-Chicago
20 Arizona
21 Ohio St
22 Auburn
23 Penn St
24 Wichita St
25 Kansas St

Final Four men’s basketball rankings

March 29, 2018

I’ve re-ranked the men’s basketball teams based on all games leading up to the Final Four. The remaining four teams (in boldface) are ranked 1st, 3rd, 7th, and 19th.

1 Villanova
2 Virginia
3 Kansas
4 Duke
5 Cincinnati
6 Purdue
7 Michigan
8 Michigan St
9 Xavier
10 Gonzaga
11 West Virginia
12 North Carolina
13 Texas Tech
14 Tennessee
15 Kentucky
16 Clemson
17 Nevada
18 Houston
19 Loyola-Chicago
20 Arizona
21 Auburn
22 Ohio St
23 Wichita St
24 St Marys CA
25 Kansas St

Where do the Sweet 16 basketball teams fall in the rankings?

Here are where the Sweet 16 teams were ranked on Selection Sunday in my composite rankings, creating by combining several ranking methods:

1 Villanova
4 Purdue
5 Kansas
7 Duke
8 Gonzaga
11 Michigan
12 West Virginia
18 Nevada
19 Texas Tech
20 Kentucky
22 Clemson
25 Loyola-Chicago
31 Kansas St
32 Texas A&M
58 Syracuse
68 Florida St

For comparison, here are where the Sweet 16 teams were ranked on Selection Sunday in my Modified Logistic Regression Markov Chain rankings, one of the rankings used in the composite rankings:

1     Villanova
3     Kansas
5     Duke
6     Purdue
8     West Virginia
11    Michigan
13    Kentucky
15    Gonzaga
16    Texas Tech
20    Clemson
24    Nevada
26    Texas A&M
27    Kansas St
41    Syracuse
43    Loyola-Chicago
56    Florida St

Some of the lowest seeded teams left in the tournament, such as Nevada and Loyola-Chicago, are highly ranked.

Note: on Selection Sunday, I had UMBC ranked 140th and 189th in the composite and mLRMC rankings, respectively. Virginia was ranked 2nd in both of my rankings. It was quite an upset.

 

NCAA men’s Division I basketball rankings, March 11, 2018 (Selection Sunday!)

Here are my composite Markov chain rankings for March 11, 2018.  The full ranking is under the “NCAA BB rankings” tab.

1 Villanova
2 Virginia
3 Cincinnati
4 Purdue
5 Kansas
6 Michigan St
7 Duke
8 Gonzaga
9 North Carolina
10 Xavier
11 Michigan
12 West Virginia
13 Arizona
14 Houston
15 Wichita St
16 Tennessee
17 Auburn
18 Nevada
19 Texas Tech
20 Kentucky
21 St Marys CA
22 Clemson
23 Ohio St
24 USC
25 Loyola-Chicago
26 TCU
27 Rhode Island
28 Arkansas
29 New Mexico St
30 Seton Hall
31 Kansas St
32 Texas A&M
33 Virginia Tech
34 Florida
35 Louisville
36 Butler
37 Buffalo
38 Penn St
39 UCLA
40 Miami FL
41 Arizona St
42 WKU
43 Creighton
44 Oregon
45 S Dakota St
46 BYU
47 St Bonaventure
48 San Diego St
49 Vermont
50 ULL

Here are the B1G teams, ranked. I have four teams in the top 25. Wisconsin id not finish in the top 100.

4 Purdue
6 Michigan St
11 Michigan
23 Ohio St
38 Penn St
70 Nebraska
73 Maryland
105 Wisconsin
116 Indiana
126 Iowa
128 Minnesota
129 Northwestern
148 Rutgers
155 Illinois

NCAA men’s Division I basketball rankings, March 5, 2018

Here are my composite Markov chain rankings for March 5, 2018.  The full ranking is under the “NCAA BB rankings” tab.

1 Villanova
2 Virginia
3 Purdue
4 Michigan St
5 Duke
6 Cincinnati
7 Michigan
8 Xavier
9 Kansas
10 Auburn
11 Gonzaga
12 Wichita St
13 North Carolina
14 West Virginia
15 Nevada
16 Ohio St
17 Texas Tech
18 St Marys CA
19 TCU
20 Arizona
21 Houston
22 Tennessee
23 Clemson
24 Loyola-Chicago
25 Seton Hall

Here are the B1G teams, ranked. I have three teams in the top 10. Unfortunately, none of them is Wisconsin :(

3 Purdue
4 Michigan St
7 Michigan
16 Ohio St
35 Penn St
58 Nebraska
63 Maryland
92 Wisconsin
109 Indiana
114 Iowa
120 Minnesota
126 Northwestern
139 Rutgers
147 Illinois

NCAA men’s Division I basketball rankings, February 26, 2018

Here are my composite Markov chain rankings for February 26, 2018.  The full ranking is under the “NCAA BB rankings” tab.

  1. Michigan St
  2. Villanova
  3. Virginia
  4. Purdue
  5. Cincinnati
  6. Duke
  7. Kansas
  8. Auburn
  9. Xavier
  10. Gonzaga
  11. North Carolina
  12. Wichita St
  13. Ohio St
  14. Nevada
  15. St Marys CA
  16. West Virginia
  17. Texas Tech
  18. Michigan
  19. TCU
  20. Clemson
  21. Arizona
  22. Houston
  23. Tennessee
  24. USC
  25. Rhode Island
  26. Seton Hall
  27. Loyola-Chicago
  28. Virginia Tech
  29. Texas A&M
  30. Arkansas

Here are the B1G teams, ranked. Four are in the top 25. Wisconsin broke into the top 100 this week.

1 Michigan St
4 Purdue
13 Ohio St
18 Michigan
36 Nebraska
42 Maryland
44 Penn St
86 Indiana
97 Wisconsin
99 Minnesota
110 Northwestern
124 Iowa
126 Illinois
169 Rutgers

NCAA men’s Division I basketball rankings, February 19, 2018

I am way overdue with my men’s college basketball rankings. This year, I am reporting composite Markov chain rankings, which combines my rankings with a Markov chain. Here are this week’s rankings.  The full ranking is under the “NCAA BB rankings” tab.

1 Villanova
2 Michigan St
3 Virginia
4 Purdue
5 Cincinnati
6 Kansas
7 Duke
8 Auburn
9 Xavier
10 Texas Tech
11 North Carolina
12 Gonzaga
13 St Marys CA
14 Wichita St
15 Nevada
16 Ohio St
17 West Virginia
18 Clemson
19 Houston
20 Arizona
21 Michigan
22 TCU
23 Arizona St
24 USC
25 Tennessee

Here are the B1G teams, ranked. Four are in the top 25. I’m sad to report that Wisconsin is not ranked in the top 100.

2 Michigan St
4 Purdue
16 Ohio St
21 Michigan
28 Maryland
37 Penn St
55 Nebraska
81 Indiana
94 Northwestern
95 Minnesota
104 Wisconsin
120 Iowa
134 Illinois
149 Rutgers

Final 2017 College Football Rankings

Here are my final 2017 college football rankings after the bowl games and College Football Playoffs. Congrats to overall champion and top ranked team Alabama. And thank you to Wisconsin for a great season! The full rankings are here.

  1. Alabama
  2. Georgia
  3. Wisconsin
  4. UCF
  5. Ohio St
  6. Clemson
  7. Oklahoma
  8. Penn St
  9. Notre Dame
  10. Auburn
  11. Michigan St
  12. Boise St
  13. USC
  14. Stanford
  15. Miami FL
  16. TCU
  17. Oklahoma St
  18. Iowa
  19. Washington
  20. Northwestern
  21. FL Atlantic
  22. Memphis
  23. Troy
  24. NC State
  25. Mississippi St

Here is the B1G conference, ranked.

3 Wisconsin
5 Ohio St
8 Penn St
11 Michigan St
18 Iowa
20 Northwestern
32 Michigan
38 Purdue
73 Minnesota
77 Indiana
82 Nebraska
85 Maryland
99 Rutgers
115 Illinois

 

NCAA Football Rankings: December 3, 2017 (Selection day!)

Here are my Selection Sunday NCAA football rankings. I was sad when I crunched the numbers this morning. The College Football Playoff has been announced, and it looks like Wisconsin was officially ranked sixth and will miss out on the playoff. For what it’s worth, I have Wisconsin ranked fourth.

Compared to my rankings from last week, we can see that Clemson went from second to first, Georgia went from fourth to second, Oklahoma went from eighth to third, Wisconsin went from first to fourth, and Alabama went from third to seventh. Not playing in a conference championship game is one less potential victory to improve a team’s mathematical ranking, and that seems to matter a lot to prove the team deserves to be ranked at the very top.

  1. Clemson
  2. Georgia
  3. Oklahoma
  4. Wisconsin
  5. UCF
  6. Ohio St
  7. Alabama
  8. Penn St
  9. Auburn
  10. Notre Dame
  11. USC
  12. Stanford
  13. Miami FL
  14. Washington
  15. Memphis
  16. Michigan St
  17. Boise St
  18. TCU
  19. FL Atlantic
  20. Toledo
  21. LSU
  22. Virginia Tech
  23. Northwestern
  24. Oklahoma St
  25. Iowa

Here is the B1G conference, ranked.

4 Wisconsin
6 Ohio St
8 Penn St
16 Michigan St
23 Northwestern
25 Iowa
29 Michigan
42 Purdue
71 Minnesota
79 Indiana
82 Nebraska
88 Maryland
101 Rutgers
116 Illinois

College Football Playoff forecast: November 26, 2017

Top teams forecasted to make the College Football Playoff based on a simulation of the remaining season and conference championship games:

1 Wisconsin
2 Clemson
3 Oklahoma
4 Georgia
5 Auburn
6 UCF
7 Ohio St
8 Miami
9 Alabama

It’s going to be an exciting finish to the college football season. Here is what I observe from the forecasts and my rankings:

  • Wisconsin is underrated. They are not guaranteed to make the playoff, but I have the Badgers ranked in the Top 4 if they win and sometimes if they lose the Big 10 championship game.
  • Oklahoma is ranked #8 but is third likely to make the playoff. This is due to Oklahoma being heavily favored in their conference championship game against TCU.
  • It’s not obvious who should make it into the playoff because there is only one undefeated team from a major conference (yeah Wisconsin!) and some of the highest ranked teams are not playing in their conference championship games (Alabama, Penn State).
    • For this reason, my model shows Central Florida (UCF) as having a decent chance at making it into the playoff, although I do not think this is realistic.
  • I am showing that three SEC teams (Auburn, Georgia, Alabama) have a chance at making it into the playoffs with one week of games left. This is unprecedented. Usually, the conference championship games determine who realistically has a shot at the playoff.
  • I am showing nine teams have a chance at making it into the playoff with one week of games left. My model is showing that not a single team is a “lock” for the playoff. This is unprecedented. We are going to have an exciting finish to the season!