NCAA men’s Division I basketball rankings, February 19, 2018

I am way overdue with my men’s college basketball rankings. This year, I am reporting composite Markov chain rankings, which combines my rankings with a Markov chain. Here are this week’s rankings.  The full ranking is under the “NCAA BB rankings” tab.

1 Villanova
2 Michigan St
3 Virginia
4 Purdue
5 Cincinnati
6 Kansas
7 Duke
8 Auburn
9 Xavier
10 Texas Tech
11 North Carolina
12 Gonzaga
13 St Marys CA
14 Wichita St
15 Nevada
16 Ohio St
17 West Virginia
18 Clemson
19 Houston
20 Arizona
21 Michigan
22 TCU
23 Arizona St
24 USC
25 Tennessee

Here are the B1G teams, ranked. Four are in the top 25. I’m sad to report that Wisconsin is not ranked in the top 100.

2 Michigan St
4 Purdue
16 Ohio St
21 Michigan
28 Maryland
37 Penn St
55 Nebraska
81 Indiana
94 Northwestern
95 Minnesota
104 Wisconsin
120 Iowa
134 Illinois
149 Rutgers

Final 2017 College Football Rankings

Here are my final 2017 college football rankings after the bowl games and College Football Playoffs. Congrats to overall champion and top ranked team Alabama. And thank you to Wisconsin for a great season! The full rankings are here.

  1. Alabama
  2. Georgia
  3. Wisconsin
  4. UCF
  5. Ohio St
  6. Clemson
  7. Oklahoma
  8. Penn St
  9. Notre Dame
  10. Auburn
  11. Michigan St
  12. Boise St
  13. USC
  14. Stanford
  15. Miami FL
  16. TCU
  17. Oklahoma St
  18. Iowa
  19. Washington
  20. Northwestern
  21. FL Atlantic
  22. Memphis
  23. Troy
  24. NC State
  25. Mississippi St

Here is the B1G conference, ranked.

3 Wisconsin
5 Ohio St
8 Penn St
11 Michigan St
18 Iowa
20 Northwestern
32 Michigan
38 Purdue
73 Minnesota
77 Indiana
82 Nebraska
85 Maryland
99 Rutgers
115 Illinois

 

NCAA Football Rankings: December 3, 2017 (Selection day!)

Here are my Selection Sunday NCAA football rankings. I was sad when I crunched the numbers this morning. The College Football Playoff has been announced, and it looks like Wisconsin was officially ranked sixth and will miss out on the playoff. For what it’s worth, I have Wisconsin ranked fourth.

Compared to my rankings from last week, we can see that Clemson went from second to first, Georgia went from fourth to second, Oklahoma went from eighth to third, Wisconsin went from first to fourth, and Alabama went from third to seventh. Not playing in a conference championship game is one less potential victory to improve a team’s mathematical ranking, and that seems to matter a lot to prove the team deserves to be ranked at the very top.

  1. Clemson
  2. Georgia
  3. Oklahoma
  4. Wisconsin
  5. UCF
  6. Ohio St
  7. Alabama
  8. Penn St
  9. Auburn
  10. Notre Dame
  11. USC
  12. Stanford
  13. Miami FL
  14. Washington
  15. Memphis
  16. Michigan St
  17. Boise St
  18. TCU
  19. FL Atlantic
  20. Toledo
  21. LSU
  22. Virginia Tech
  23. Northwestern
  24. Oklahoma St
  25. Iowa

Here is the B1G conference, ranked.

4 Wisconsin
6 Ohio St
8 Penn St
16 Michigan St
23 Northwestern
25 Iowa
29 Michigan
42 Purdue
71 Minnesota
79 Indiana
82 Nebraska
88 Maryland
101 Rutgers
116 Illinois

College Football Playoff forecast: November 26, 2017

Top teams forecasted to make the College Football Playoff based on a simulation of the remaining season and conference championship games:

1 Wisconsin
2 Clemson
3 Oklahoma
4 Georgia
5 Auburn
6 UCF
7 Ohio St
8 Miami
9 Alabama

It’s going to be an exciting finish to the college football season. Here is what I observe from the forecasts and my rankings:

  • Wisconsin is underrated. They are not guaranteed to make the playoff, but I have the Badgers ranked in the Top 4 if they win and sometimes if they lose the Big 10 championship game.
  • Oklahoma is ranked #8 but is third likely to make the playoff. This is due to Oklahoma being heavily favored in their conference championship game against TCU.
  • It’s not obvious who should make it into the playoff because there is only one undefeated team from a major conference (yeah Wisconsin!) and some of the highest ranked teams are not playing in their conference championship games (Alabama, Penn State).
    • For this reason, my model shows Central Florida (UCF) as having a decent chance at making it into the playoff, although I do not think this is realistic.
  • I am showing that three SEC teams (Auburn, Georgia, Alabama) have a chance at making it into the playoffs with one week of games left. This is unprecedented. Usually, the conference championship games determine who realistically has a shot at the playoff.
  • I am showing nine teams have a chance at making it into the playoff with one week of games left. My model is showing that not a single team is a “lock” for the playoff. This is unprecedented. We are going to have an exciting finish to the season!

NCAA Football Rankings: November 26, 2017

Here are this week’s composite rankings. I am thrilled to announce that we have Wisconsin ranked #1. My composite rankings aggregate five rankings (using a Markov chain — hooray!) and all five have Wisconsin football ranked #1 and Clemson ranked #2. Oklahoma is ranked #4-#11, Alabama is ranked #3-#6, and Auburn is ranked #5-#7 in the individual rankings. With only one week of games left, it’s surprising that there is so much disagreement between the different ranking models. This is evidence that it’s not completely obvious who should make it into the college football playoff this late into the season. The excitement will continue :) Good luck to the Badgers!

My full rankings are on the NCAAF rankings tab.

 

1 Wisconsin
2 Clemson
3 Alabama
4 Georgia
5 UCF
6 Auburn
7 Penn St
8 Oklahoma
9 Miami FL
10 Ohio St
11 Notre Dame
12 Washington
13 Stanford
14 USC
15 Michigan St
16 Memphis
17 TCU
18 LSU
19 Boise St
20 Northwestern
21 Virginia Tech
22 Oklahoma St
23 San Diego St
24 Washington St
25 Iowa

Here is the B1G conference, ranked:

1 Wisconsin
7 Penn St
10 Ohio St
15 Michigan St
20 Northwestern
25 Iowa
26 Michigan
42 Purdue
70 Minnesota
76 Indiana
78 Nebraska
86 Maryland
99 Rutgers
114 Illinois

 

College Football Playoff forecast: November 19, 2017

Top teams forecasted to make the College Football Playoff based on a simulation of the remaining season and conference championship games:

  1. Wisconsin
  2. Alabama
  3. Clemson
  4. Georgia
  5. Miami
  6. Oklahoma
  7. Ohio St
  8. Notre Dame
  9. Auburn

Things are looking great for Wisconsin! As with last week. Wisconsin is my “most likely” to make the playoff here because Wisconsin has clinched a berth in the Big10 championship game and has a chance to be ranked in the top four even if they lose. I do not think they would be selected if they lose, but mathematically they would have a chance, especially since other top Big 10 teams have 2 losses.

Miami ranks low because they have to go through Clemson to get to the playoff. Oklahoma seems low here, especially compared to last week. Beating bad teams–Kansas in this case–penalizes otherwise good teams. The issue here is that teams like Oklahoma that are likely to be ranked 4th at the end of the season are a little sensitive in the simulation because they often fall so close to the cutoff (only 4 teams make the playoff).

 

 

 

NCAA Football Rankings: November 19, 2017

Here are this week’s composite rankings. I have Alabama at #1 and Wisconsin at #2. Georgia and Notre Dame tumble to #8 and #9, respectively. Various rankings that I aggregate have UCF in vastly different places. I have UCF at #6 in my aggregate rankings below, but I think that is high. I do not believe UCF will be one of the top four ranked teams at the end of the season.

I post my full rankings on the NCAAF rankings tab every week.

1 Alabama
2 Wisconsin
3 Clemson
4 Miami FL
5 Georgia
6 Notre Dame
7 Penn St
8 UCF
9 Oklahoma
10 Ohio St
11 Auburn
12 USC
13 Michigan St
14 Boise St
15 TCU
16 Washington
17 Washington St
18 Memphis
19 Stanford
20 Northwestern
21 Mississippi St
22 Michigan
23 Oklahoma St
24 LSU
25 Virginia Tech

Here are the B1G teams, ranked.

 

2 Wisconsin
7 Penn St
10 Ohio St
13 Michigan St
20 Northwestern
22 Michigan
26 Iowa
50 Purdue
63 Indiana
69 Nebraska
70 Minnesota
81 Maryland
98 Rutgers
113 Illinois

College Football Playoff forecast: November 12, 2017

Top teams forecasted to make the College Football Playoff based on a simulation of the remaining season and conference championship games:

  1. Wisconsin
  2. Alabama
  3. Oklahoma
  4. Clemson
  5. Miami FL
  6. Georgia
  7. Ohio St
  8. Auburn
  9. Notre Dame
  10. Penn St

Things are looking great for Wisconsin! They are my “most likely” to make the playoff here because Wisconsin has clinched a berth in the Big10 champtionship game and has a chance to be ranked in the top four even if they lose. I do not think they would be selected if they lose, but mathematically they would have a chance.

It’s interesting to see who is most likely to be ranked fifth and just miss out on the playoff:

  • Georgia
  • Notre Dame
  • Penn State
  • Oklahoma
  • Clemson
  • Wisconsin
  • The Ohio State University
  • Central Florida (UCF) - UCF does not appear likely to be ranked as one of the top four teams, even if they win the rest of their games. They could be ranked as high as fifth.

 

NCAA Football Rankings: November 12, 2017

Here are this week’s composite rankings. I have Alabama at #1 and Wisconsin at #2. Georgia and Notre Dame tumble to #8 and #9, respectively. Various rankings that I aggregate have UCF in vastly different places. I have UCF at #6 in my aggregate rankings below, but I think that is high. I do not believe UCF will be one of the top four ranked teams at the end of the season.

I post my full rankings on the NCAAF rankings tab every week.

1 Alabama
2 Wisconsin
3 Clemson
4 Miami FL
5 Penn St
6 UCF
7 Oklahoma
8 Georgia
9 Notre Dame
10 Ohio St
11 USC
12 Auburn
13 Michigan St
14 Washington St
15 Oklahoma St
16 TCU
17 Michigan
18 Boise St
19 Iowa
20 Washington
21 Memphis
22 Stanford
23 Mississippi St
24 NC State
25 Northwestern

Here are the B1G teams, ranked.

2 Wisconsin
5 Penn St
10 Ohio St
13 Michigan St
17 Michigan
19 Iowa
25 Northwestern
57 Purdue
60 Minnesota
67 Nebraska
77 Maryland
78 Indiana
91 Rutgers
111 Illinois

College Football Playoff forecast: November 5, 2017

Top teams forecasted to make the College Football Playoff based on a simulation of the remaining season and conference championship games:

1 Georgia
2 Alabama
3 Notre Dame
4 Wisconsin (woo hoo!)
5 Clemson
6 Michigan St
7 Miami FL
8 Washington
9 Ohio St
10 Penn St

Things are looking good for Wisconsin! Ohio State and Penn State have a small chance for making the playoff, but Penn St is eliminated for all practical purposes. It looks like the Big 12 and the Pac 10 could be left out of the playoff.